Can We Talk About the NBA Top Shot Premium Pack Drop Today and its Aftermath?
On Wednesday, Dapper announced a drop of Premium packs after a successful stress test. The drop was scheduled for 9AM Thursday (PST), but got delayed to 12PM, and then to 9AM Friday. The delay was attributed to possible instability issues caused by potential botting activity. NBA Top Shot wanted to remedy the bot situation as much as possible for a more equitable pack drop.
The drop, which happened on time today, was more or less a success. A record-breaking 200,500 people were in queue, which is to date, the longest queue yet in the history of Top Shot. Not to mention, this was for a $99 pack, which is a bit of a premium over the regular $9 base packs. If you were in line today, you only had a 5% chance of getting one.
Did I get one?
Personally, I was very close to the prize, but unfortunately did not win it. However, I gained great insights. I started the queue with around 12,685 users ahead of me. With only 10,631 packs in the drop, I was off by 2,054. I ended up being #857 with 0 packs left in the end, which means that between joining the queue and the packs getting sold out, around 1,197 people in front of me have dropped out. This could be for a variety of reasons such as payments failing, or not being able to complete the purchase before the timer ran out.
So, if your queue number is ever between 1,000 - 1,500 of the total packs count, definitely stay in line since there's still pretty good chances that you'll get one.
The marketplace had a bumpy ride after the drop. It hit a couple snags where it was not working correctly, and was pretty much down for hours. At one point, sellers were able to list, but buyers weren't able to buy, causing sellers to panic and undercut each other, driving the prices down rapidly.
S2 moments that were included in today's packs took the biggest hit. Sub $10 prices started appearing, which we have not seen in days. The LeBron James 3 Pointer (which I call my LBJ Index as it seems to be a good indicator of market trend) even dipped below $1,000 for the first time in almost two weeks. S1 moments seemed to be mostly unaffected.
However, once the marketplace operations stabilized, prices began climbing, and at the time of writing this article, LBJ is back to $1,475.
Metallic Gold Limited Edition (MGLEs)
As for MGLEs which were included in the packs today, prices surprisingly went up for most despite the increase in listings. Donovan Mitchell's is most noticeable with a pre-drop price of $899 to a post-drop price of $2,434. Some, however, had their prices lowered, with Dillon Brooks taking the biggest hit from $1,049 pre-drop to $800 post-drop.
As for the newly circulated MGLEs, Steph Curry's Price is the highest at $9,800 lowest ask, closely followed by Zion Williamson's $9,000. The lowest priced currently from today's MGLEs is Tomáš Satoranský's moment at $875.
To view all price and listing changes for MGLEs from 11:14 am (pre-drop) and 6:00 pm (post-drop), you can find my spreadsheet here.
Overall, it was a pretty smooth drop and I do trust that a lot of the bots were removed. It will be exciting to see how Dapper tackles multiple accounts next, which we still see a lot of. If today's drop is any indication, Dapper will see a lot more people in future drops. Good thing is that Dapper has said that the targeted base pack availability of being around 24/7 is coming soon.
What did you think of the drop today? Comment below or holler on Twitter @topshotnoobie.
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